洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is C( 六 )

2026-01-24

本文原始标题为：洪灝：市场确认了一个重要的拐点（Market Inflection Point is Confirmed）---来源是：

The“FedPut”isbasedondecliningmacrovolatility.Inthepastdecade,thetradetoshortvolatilityhasbeeninvogue,largelybasedonthe“FedPut”–itwillbailoutthemarketeverytimeitrunsintotrouble.Aspersistentliquiditysupplysuppressesmarketvolatility,itislucrativetobetondecliningvolatility–allthewayuntilthe“volcrash”inJanuary2018,whencumulativegainsofseveralhundredpercentovertheyearsbysomespecialtyshort-volfundsreturnedtozero.

SocialInequalitySuppressesPriceVolatility

Laborwagegrowthlagsproductivitygains,suppressingpricevolatility.Besidescentralbankeasingsuppressingmarketvolatility,webelievethatothermacroeconomicreasonsarebehindthedisappearingmacrovolatility.Inourseriesofspecialreportsonsocialinequalityandseculardisinflation,wepositedthatthedisinflationexperiencedbytheglobaleconomysinceearly1980sisareflectionoftheexploitationof“surplusvalue”producedbytheworkingclass.

Thisprocessisevidencedbylaborproductivitygainconsistentlyoutpacingwagegrowthforthepastthreedecades,concurringwithfallinginflationandlongbondyields.(Figure2;forthelackofbetterexpressions,wehaveborrowedsometermsfromKarlMarx,oneoftheseminalfiguresonlaboreconomics;pleaserefertoourspecialreport“APriceRevolution”on20161114).

Figure2:Productivitygainsoutpacedwagegrowth,creatingsocialinequity/suppressinginflation

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